# AiS Challenge Team Interim

Team Number: 39

School Name: Las Cruces High School

Area of Science: Environmental Sciences

Project Title: Future of New Mexico

Problem: We aim to predict the population of New Mexico in the year 2011. Once we have figured out this population, we are going to add a death rate factor, e.g. the Plague, A.I.D.S., etc.

Hypothesis: We predict that the growth percentage rate of New Mexico will increase by 6%. The population of New Mexico at present time is approximately 1.7 million.

Procedure: Assuming the increased birth rate, due to the increased population, will negate the effect of mortality. We will first do a control project to estimate the population. After that is completed we will add some variables to our program such as some sort of water poisoning or the Plague. Mathematically, we have found three formulas to help us predict the future of growth:

Pt+n=Pt+NI(t-t+n)+NM(t-t+n)

where:
Pt+n= population at time t+n
Pt=(base) population at time t
NI= Natural increase or the difference between births and deaths between time t and t+n
NM=the net migration, the difference between, in-and out-migration, between time t and t+n

NM(t-t+n)=(P(t+n)-Pt)-B(t-t+n)-D(t-t+n)

where
NM(t-t+n)=net migration from time t to time t+n
Pt= Population at time t
Pt+n= population at time t+n
B(t-t+n)= resident biths from time t to time t+n
D(t-t+n)=resident deaths from time t to t+n

10 years= ln(x/1.819 million)/ln(1+(b-d/n))

where
b=1437 per 1000 women
n=.6
where b=birth
d=death

In order to add variables, like sickness, we must research the specific disease and find its mortality rate. Then we enter that into the above formulas to find the affects.

Research websites:

Background:

Found some changes to the environment over the years. Between 1990 and 2010 the population will grow 33%. Fish catch will grow 20%. Irrigated land will grow 17%. Cropland will grow 5%. Range land will grow 4%. Forests will decrease by 7%. In per capita terms this means that fish catch will be -10%, irrigated land -12%, Cropland -21%, range land -22%, forests -30%.

Population of New Mexico in 2000 was 1 819 046. Percent of change between
birth rate = # births per 1000 = b
death rate = # deaths per 1000 = d
immigration rate = # entering the area
emmigration rate = # leaving area
The rate of natural increase measures population growth.
r = (b-d)/n = rate of natural increase

So if # birth of births in population of 1000 is 50 and death rate = 31
then--- r = (50 - 31)/1000 = 19/1000 = .019 or 1.9%. if r = + then b>d and population is increasing.

According to the Albuquerque data bank, by the year 2010, New Mexico will hit the two million mark. By 2020 the population will top 2.4 million. During the first 20 years of the next century, over 5000 thousand more people will be added to the state population, yet it is estimated that the state population will grow at a slower rate than current estimates. Between 1990 and 1995, New Mexico grew at an annual rate of over two percent. It is estimated that between the years 2000 and 2010, New Mexico's population will increase at an annual rate of about 1.4 percent. We are doing this project to figure out if this estimation is indeed correct.

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