# Statistical Modeling of The AIDS Virus

### An excursion into the modeling of infectious diseases

Executive Summary

Introduction

Project Proposal

Analytical Methodology

Results

Conclusions

Future Work

References

Appendix 1
Understanding The Model

Appendix 2
Code, and Computations

Appendix 3
History of the AIDS Virus

### Project Proposal

##### Description of Project

The purpose of this computer-modeling project is to develop, using the C++ programming language, a model that accurately predicts the spread of the AIDS/HIV epidemic. The computer program accomplishes this by taking in a number of real-world statistics and running them through a modified version of a mathematical equation known as the SI model. The SI model is a mathematical equation that is used to describe the dynamic effects of a disease and track the susceptible and infected members of a population. This mathematical equation was extensively modified for use in the computer program, due to the fact that the original equation did not take into account certain dynamic factors such as population growth and decline, nor did it take into account different risk factors for different age groups. The computer program takes these variables into account, as well as a population's reaction to a dangerous disease. Using this diverse version of the SI model allows the program to accurately predict the future behavior of the disease by calculating the change in the variables as a function of time.

The topic for this computer project was selected because AIDS/HIV is a very widespread and dangerous epidemic. Cases of this disease are found all over the world, including in every state in the United States, which is the reason that the United States in particular was selected to be modeled by the program. The vast area affected by the disease, as well as the fact that AIDS/HIV is as yet incurable makes it ideal to base a computer modeling program on.

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