Probability of Malaria Infection Team Number: 048
School Name: Navajo Preparatory School
Area of Science:
Project Title: Probability of Malaria Infection
Team Members: Richelle Etsitty, Rochelle Vandever, Allison Tsosie

Problem Definition:

Our problem is to find out the probability of the spreading of the disease, malaria in a third world country. Malaria isn't a big problem here in the United States because there are not many things that contribute to the spread of it. In a third world country there could be many more things that contribute to it, such as the overall condition of the country such as cleanness and facilities available to maintain good health for the people of that country. We have chosen South America as our country to find the probability of malaria. Malaria is South America has exists in many parts of South America countries. In 1960, malaria was not common in South America. In 1995, malaria became an issue to South America. South American realizes that parasites have affected the population. Malaria is found in the tropical and subtropical areas. Malaria is transmitted by infected insects. The government has tried to control the parasites. There was two common ways to control, one was detection and treatment. The second is to spray insecticide on house walls to prevent malaria transmission inside of the houses.

Proposed solution:

Find out the rate at which malaria is spread and all the factors that contribute to it to help predict where the next outbreak of the disease will take place. And also finding out where the higher risk of an outbreak is to take place.

Current Progress:

We have taken two countries of South America. We are in the processing of using Ecuador and Colombia. We are going to use a grid to map out both countries. These grids will map out the population and number of mosquito that is affected by malaria. Each country has a different climate.

Expected Results:

We expect to have an equation to model probability of malaria in both countries. Each country will define how malaria affects the population of the malaria. These models will be able to define the problem of malaria in South American. Hopefully we are able to give an example of a third world's problems. This disease can be prevented but many countries can not afford to treat the people of the country.


Malaria Information for Travelers to Tropical South America. National Center for Infectious Diseases Travelers' Health. 24 November 2004 .

Malaria. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 6 December 2004 .

The Impact of Malaria, a Leading Cause of Death Worldwide. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 27 October 2004 .

Malaria. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 27 October 2004 .

Roberts, Donald R. DDT, Global Strategies, and a Malaria Control Crisis in South America. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 27 October 2004 .

Disease Risks and Precautions in Tropical South America. Center for Disease Control. 6 December 2004.