School: SANTA FE HIGH
Area of Science: social science
Interim: Problem definition: Russia is currently undergoing a severe population decline due to decreasing birth rates and life expectancies. Vast regions across Russia are vacant, and the only solution the government has right now is to encourage immigration. The influx of foreigners, however, makes many native Russians displeased. With over 160 different ethnic groups, the conflicts between them are a problem today and have been for some time. There is a potential for serious economic and social disparities in the future as some groups expand and others contract. In this project I will make projections for how the future population will look, ethnically speaking.
Problem solution: The project will predict the ethnic make up of the Russian population at different points in the future. It will be assumed that there are nine different ethnic groups (the ninth one including every other of the 160 ethnic groups not in its own category). It will also be assumed that no new ethnic groups will enter Russia. The factors included will be death rate, birth rate, and net migration rate (immigration-emigration) for each ethnic group. The net migration rate will be assumed to be constant.
Progress to date: I have done research and am still working on getting a full English version of the 2002 Russian Census. I am learning about C++, the language in which the project will be done.
Expected results: The program will predict the population of Russia and its ethnic groups; it will give reasonable estimates for shifts in ethnic groups. Using this information, solutions to the population crisis could become evident, and the government may be better prepared to deal with possible conflicts regarding ethnic groups.
Sponsoring Teacher: Anita Gerlach