The Avian Influenza, also known as Bird Flu, is a naturally occurring and very contagious virus among birds. There have been hundreds of known cases involving human infection since 1997, caused by contact with infected birds and contaminated objects or through an intermediate host. In humans, the virus causes severe respiratory illness, pneumonia, conjunctivitis, and can even be fatal. An "antigenic shift," in which the avian influenza strain exchanges genes with a human influenza strain to increase its affinity for humans, could result in a possible pandemic, killing millions.

         The project was modeled in Java using a network of nodes; the nodes contain a number of factors. Each node is not individual but rather a collective. For example, within a single node data is confirmed by the amount of people within each node, number of carriers with no signs of infection, death rate, and random natural deaths. The nodes simulate a given population, such as a city, community, or neighborhood. Thus the program is flexible for a variety of purposes. The nodes with a higher population density will of course have higher rate of infection than those in a lower population density. The program models the travel behavior of people from one point to another as in everyday life. A person who is infected will be less likely to be traveling in the present condition, whereas a person who is a carrier but not suffering any of the symptoms may travel normally and be infecting other subjects along the way. The models used are assumptions of other similar models that have been collected from the Center of Disease Control. The subjects, meaning the people, are categorized in a non-linear fashion; normal to infected, infected to cured, normal to immune; with some states being skipped altogether.

         By running the program we are able to determine the effects on populations, and the specific behavior of the virus in the event of a pandemic outbreak of the Avian Flu in the United States. With data collected from our program's output, epidemiologists can formulate a plan to combat an outbreak of the avian flu. Through future modifications, our program will also be able to be adapted to model the effects and spread of any other disease or pathogen, aiding in the development of a course of action in response to any epidemiological outbreak.