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Supercomputing Challenge

The Spread of Avian Bird Flu through birds

Team: 85


Area of Science: Epidemiology

Interim: Interim Report

The Avian Bird Influenza can spread by a low pathogenic virus which has symptoms of ruffled feathers and a drop in egg production. The virus enters the body undetected and the highly pathogenic virus then infects the whole flock and infects the organs and causes even death. The problem is that the virus is very contagious through saliva and feces. Though all birds carry the virus in there internal body organs, it still exists the body in the form of contagious saliva and feces. It causes the bird population to drop and possibly make them become endangered species.

To solve the problem of the Avian Bird Flu, we plan to use Starlogo to model the spread of the virus. We also plan to use graphs and monitors. The graphs will show which birds have the flu, which birds have become infected, which birds have recovered, and which birds are still healthy. We will have different colors of birds to represent these variables. The color of the infected birds is light blue, pink is the color of the recovered birds, the white represents which birds are healthy, and dark blue represents which birds have the virus at this time that is harmful.

At this point, we have just about completed our model of the Avian Bird Flu. We have also finished our proposal. In the Starlogo program we have made the population of birds either recover from the virus, become infected, or not recover and die off. Charts and graphs have been made for collecting information. Infected birds will have to eat the grass to gain energy and perhaps become cured.

We expect to come up with results that tell us that the infected birds may become healthy after a long period of time or most likely will die off. Also that maybe a few of them will survive the virus. In addition to the rate of the virus being spread, we expect it to be a fast and malicious one. There’s a possibility that the Avian Bird Flu will die out because if all the infected birds recover then it won’t spread anymore, resulting in the disappearance of the virus all together.

“AVIAN FLU FACT SHEET.” Health in Schools. 05 Oct. 2005. 18 Sept. 2006

“Avian Influenza: Current Situation.” CDC. 9 Aug. 2006. 7 Sept. 2006

“Key Facts About Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) and Avian Influenza a (H5N1) Virus.”
CDC. 30 June 2006. 7 Sept. 2006

"Pandemic Flu H5N1: the Bird Flu Isn’t Just for Birds." Message From CEO of AIF. 20 Apr. 2006. Association industries of Florida. 18 Sept. 2006

"Infectivity." H5N1 Bird Flu Virus. 7 Sept. 2006

Team Members:

  Matthew Conover
  Robert Marlow
  Jacquelyn Holguin

Sponsoring Teacher: Janet Penevolpe

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