Social Model for Predicting Economic Trends
School: LOS ALAMOS HIGH
Area of Science: Behavioral and Social Sciences / Mathematics
Notice: This proposal has been revised as of 5 November 2006. The original proposal is available upon request.
Financial analysts have been working for years to model exchanges between foreign currencies. Many have created complex mathematical algorithms to simulate world currency trade based on historical data and general trends. However, traditional mathematical models do not account for many social and political variables, such as the emergence of compassionate consumerism or recent Russian natural gas conflicts.
We hope to extend existing models of currency exchange rates and add new ideas about economic trends, so that we can account for variations in exchange rates which have occurred over the course of the last decade.
We will create a tracking engine to collect and display historical data on currency exchange rates over the past decade alongside current daily data from the Federal Reserve Bank. This will be done using a high level language with powerful database integration, coupled with visualization tools provided by OpenGL or the GD Graphics Library. Using this engine, we can include new social and political factors that haven’t been given as much thought as they deserve.
“Foreign Exchange XML Data.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Ed. George Matthes. 10 Oct. 2006. <http://www.ny.frb.org/xml/fx.html>.
Salganik, Matthew, Peter Dodds, and Duncan Watts. “Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market.” Science 10 Feb. 2006: 854-856.
Mentor: Neale Pickett
Sponsoring Teacher: Diane Medford
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