Interim Report

Team Number: 33
School Name: Cimarron High School
Area of Science: Environmental Science
Project Title: Petroleum Depletion in the US
Project Abstract: http://mode.lanl.k12.nm.us/97.98/abstracts/033.html
Interim Report: http://mode.lanl.k12.nm.us/97.98/interims/033.html
Final Report: http://mode.lanl.k12.nm.us/97.98/finalreports/033/finalreport.html

Petroleum is one of the most important resources in the world. In fact it provides nearly half the energy used in this world. Energy for ships, trains, trucks, farm equipment, factories, airplanes, and most importantly automobiles. Because we depend on this limited resource so much and use so much of it the price is going up. Our problem is we would like to find the price of petroleum products (specifically gasoline prices) in the year 2050.

To do this we have created a program. To find if our program is correct we will graph the price of gas from 50 years ago and set our program constants to make the predicted price match the real price. When the graph from the complete program matches the actual graph we will know our program is correct. This process is called curve fitting. To change our program to fit our graph we will change the constants as we see fit. So far this year we have developed only a basic form of the program. We still have to get our constants.

Right now we have tried to incorporate every factor that we could or is playing a role in the increse and decresse of petroleum products. Our research has been done completly on the internet and in encyclopedias. As of now we have not comtacted a mentor but we aaare still trying to contact one. The factors we have incorporated are the number of reserves that have been recovered, the inflation rate, the rate of consumption, and the price right now.

We expect to get a higher price in petroleum products (at the gas pump) in the year 2050. This price will be around $1.80 per gallon. We have predicted this because the oil is getting used up and we are not finding as many oil reserves so unless we start finding a lot of crude oil that we can use in daily life as well as in our cars, the price is going to keep going up as the oil depletes until it is totally gone. Of course we could very possibly be proved wrong, but until then our opinion is the former stated.

Our equation:F=k1*P+k2*R+k3*C+k4*I

There are of course a few factors that we can not incorporate like the invention of more efficient engines, synthetic fuels, economic recession, and political reasons. Also if you have any information or just a good basic knowledge on working with the fluctuation of petroleum prices, please contact one of the members of our group at ldabovic@tornado.cimarron.nmhs.edu

Thank you very much.

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