Challenge Team Interim Report


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    Team Number:014

    School Name: Bloomfield High School

    Area of Science: Statistics

    Project Title: Nostradamus

Abstract
Interim
Final Report

Interim Report for the Statistical Probability of Foreseen Doom

Our problem is to find the statistical probability of Nostradamus' future predictions coming true based of the accuracy of his past predictions. We will be using his future predictions that center around the end of the world in 1999. By finding the percentage of past predictions that came true, we will find out what percentage of future predictions that will come true.

By using a statistical equation based on the ratio of past predictions that came true, we will compare future predictions and determine their probability. The number of number of past predictions that came true over the number of past predictions equals the variable over the number of future predictions. (# true/# past predictions= X/# future predictions).

We have successfully gathered data on predictions for 1999. We have begun research on past predictions and have begun to develop a formula. We plan to gather more information on both future and past predictions, while beginning a program to compute the statistics. We were not able to find his book of all of his predictions yet, but we should be able to find it in the near future.

We expect to find that there is a large statistical probability for many future predictions will come true. Based on our resarch of past predictions, we believe there will be a very high percentage of accurate prophecies. We have to assume that his predictions do come ture, because of the fact that a lot of them are general and don't say exactly what will happen. An example of one is "The Great King of Terror". We don't know what it is exactly.


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