|New Mexico Supercomputing Challenge|
Challenge Team Interim Report
Project Definition: Our team is trying to model the spread of the smallpox disease through the outbreak of a biochemical weapon. Because there are two ways of contracting the disease, through the skin and through the air, we have two formulas.
Project Solution: We have received the air formula from Forest Maldrin. He gave us an example of a cloud dispersion formula. We are using this to calculate the dispersion of a sneeze of a person who is infected. They are infected through their respiratory system. When a person sneezes about 5,000 droplets of contagious smallpox is spreads at the rate of 160 kilometers per hours and can travel over 4 meters.
Air Formula - Q = CD A2 gc(144) k (p/v) (2/k+1)
The contact through the skin is less severe because it does not enter through your respiratory system. It is entered through an incision in your skin.
Skin Formula - Delta I = I i+1 - Ii / DTi = CT (Si)(Ii) - (DD +DO)Ii - RR(Ii)
When the skin formula is broken down it can fomulate if a disease will contaminate the whole area is breaks out in or if the disease will die out in time. The equation is broken down into
Ro = CT (Si) / (DD + DO + RR) > 1
If Ro is greater than 1 then the disease will increase. If the equation is less than 1 it will fade out.
We are waiting to make our full program because we are trying to obtain the hotspot program. This program has an already made formula to help with the spread of the disease. We are also talking to Steve Homann to get an EPI program. This program was created by Mr. Homann and he said we would be able to use it in our program.
Background: Since the smallpox disease has not been in the world, the spread of it can happen at a rapid rate. Today, there are only (suppose) to be two guarded stocks of the smallpox disease. They have been kept frozen in laboratories at he Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia, and the Russian State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.
Over the past decades, scientists have been arguing because they want to keep a vile of the disease. The people from the WHO program are fighting for the disease to be destroyed so that if anyone outside of the centers and laboratories gets a hold of it, the world is in a considerable amount of trouble. The scientists are studying the DNA strand of smallpox so that if there is a cure for it they will have it. In 1999 WHO and the scientists have come to some kind of agreement. The agreement goes as follows: if scientists keep the vile for human purposes, they have to use the clone of the DNA strand so if it gets out of control, the disease will not carry the deadly material in it. Anything else has not been determined.
Mr. Berry Estes
Ms. Mary Helen Sparks
For questions about the Supercomputing Challenge, a 501(c)3 organization, contact us at: consult1516 @ supercomputingchallenge.org
New Mexico Supercomputing Challenge, Inc.
80 Cascabel Street
Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544